Since 2011 during the opposition Walk to Work protests in Kampala and the subsequent protests like the Defiance, Kogikwatako and now the Tubalemese, Museveni’s security machinery has actively foiled such efforts. The different security agencies like the army, the police, the intelligence services, the SFC, and the various paramilitary groups like the Boda Boda 2010, Crime Preventers and others have always effectively coordinated to brutally contain opposition led protests.
However, recent events concerning rivalry over supremacy and control of resources have clearly demonstrated a visible rapture in the coordination efficiency of these security agencies. The police which is the lead agency in such situations is being undermined by the lead intelligence agencies (ISO and CMI). Its operational efficiency must be at its lowest and its auxiliary forces in the form of Boda Boda 2010, Crime Preventers and others are in disarray. The latest is that the police chief has threatened to prosecute his officers who are sharing information with the other security agencies without his express permission. He is not personally on talking terms with his counterparts. The situation implies that there is no institutional coordination of both intelligence and field operations.
Ordinarily it would look as if in the event of an organised opposition protest, the police being the lead agency would not effectively respond. This would leave the army to take the lead in dealing with the situation though with devastating consequences. Obviously, the police would wish to see the army failing to contain the situation or at best mismanaging it.
Of course, in the event of a resurgence of opposition led protests amidst the current situation, the army and intelligence agencies including the SFC would swing into action. The amount of force, brutality and damage in terms of casualties would be devastating. The regime doesn’t mind any such damage since its major concern is to retain power. Therefore, though I am convinced beyond doubt that Ugandans can’t come out to participate in mass action, my sincere advice is that let no one dare think about attempting such a move. The phase for protests came and it played its role thus Ugandans are more politically conscious than ever before. The next phase is for a different type of action and it fits well into the current situation of “uncoordinated troop movement”. Remember you are now dealing with a more lethal ” wounded lion”.
INFORMATION IS POWER AND DEFIANTLY “HITTING ON THE HEAD” IS THE WAY TO GO
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